El Niño Sputters: Chances for Drought Relief Recede

Hopes for a wetter than average winter, provided by developing El Niño conditions in the central Pacific, are waning, the San Diego Tribune reports. Increases in ocean surface water temperatures, first detected back in June, are slowing, which increases the chances that California's drought will continue:

Long-range forecasters are less and less bullish about El Niño, a global atmospheric condition that could bring extra precipitation to San Diego County.

Most of them say the odds still slightly favor a wetter-than-normal rainfall season in California, which could use a drenching after three straight years of drought. But the fledgling El Niño is showing signs of losing steam.

“If I were buying up water futures, I would not be reaching deep into my wallet at this point,” said Jan Null, a former forecaster for the National Weather Service who now runs a meteorological company.

California's water managers are taking a similar stance: They're not relying on El Niño to fill the state's depleted reservoirs. The shrinking supply has forced many water providers — including virtually all of the ones in San Diego County — to implement voluntary or mandatory restrictions on usage.

“We're planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the California Department of Water Resources.

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